The New York Times reported yesterday that retail holiday spending was weak, as measured from Thanksgiving to Christmas. The American consumer wasn't buying for all sorts of reasons with, er, one exception.
The parasite class did exceptionally well in 2007: Luxury purchases rose more than 7 percent. Shopping, however, not withstanding its importance in an "old world" economy, is going to be the least of our concerns, probably much sooner than we think.
In the 1967 movie The Graduate, the character played by Dustin Hoffman was advised that "plastics" was the future. Today we might substitute the word "minerals" for a future not quite like the one Benjamin Braddock was promised.
It takes some 40,000 lbs. of minerals/per person in the United States to maintain our standard of living each year, according to the Mineral Information Institute. This would include everything from stone, sand & gravel, zinc, natural gas, etc., etc.
The long and short of it is that it's simply unsustainable. These are finite resources. No, we're not going to be mining asteroids any time soon, nor will the trashing of an ice-free Arctic be our consumption salvation. We've heard of "peak oil" these past several years, but there is also peak "minerals."
Our population is growing and the world's population is increasing. That expanding middle class in China for example, right now, has the same sense of entitlement and also wants the same 40,000 lbs. per person--every year. But all is not lost dear reader, as the nineteenth century novel was fond of proclaiming.
In the U.S. today only about 5% of materials used come from renewable sources. This is going to have to increase dramatically, along with such things as nanotechnology and biologically grown materials, starting now. The challenge is significant but so are some incredible opportunities.
Some good source material:
