Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn and cauldron bubble
(witches in Macbeth)

According to Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times, elderly women in rural Tanzania accused of witchcraft are frequently murdered. This most often occurs when the region has severe drought or flooding. A researcher at the University of California has said that the witch killings "double" during these times.

An economist at the University of Chicago researched witchcraft trials and weather patterns in Western Europe from the early 16th century to the late 18th century.

According to her findings, colder weather led to more "crackdowns" on witches. Some academics have speculated that the Salem witch trials took place after an exceptionally cold winter and extreme economic difficulties.

Yes there may be some correlation between "witches and weather," but what might climate change mean on a large scale today, beyond local superstition. What are the consequences we may not yet have even conceived of?

We are seeing the spreading food riots in the developing world, and countries like Australia are now suffering from a severe drought, making it less likely that they will remain one of the world's breadbaskets.

Currently the inability of Australia to produce sufficient quantities of rice means that many poor countries throughout the world are facing price increases and hunger. This as we've seen already can lead to civil strife, destabilization, and ultimately to complete system disruption.

Something is already beginning to stir among Midwest farmers in the United States it seems to me. As the economic slowdown continues in America, as government competency decreases, and poorly thought out energy programs unfold, system disruption is starting to develop. While it may not look quite the same as in the third world, it could end up being just as unpleasant.

Right now for some farmers times are very good, especially for those farmers that grow crops like soybeans and corn. More and more farmers are taking land out of the Conservation Reserve Program in order to cash in on the high prices being paid for these commodities.

A few of these farmers are also playing the arcane commodity speculation game, which only a few people have truly mastered. The short term for some looks good. The longer term for many maybe looks not so good.

The Kansas City Star last week had a good article on the overall worldwide food crisis and the various causes ("Sky-High Cost of Eating"). What appears to be happening now in the U.S. is a rapidly growing divergence of views.

While some farmers are rushing to take land out of the conservation program and plant crops as fast as they can, other farming groups like The National Association of Wheat Growers are afraid that more land in cultivation could mean that commodity prices will tumble.

Now add to this a bakery lobby that is having difficulty finding rye flour, hunters and sportsmen that do not want more land taken out of the conservation program and have expressed environmental concerns.

Then of course is the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and its supporters and detractors. Last but not least there is the corn ethanol lobby, which has its own supporters and detractors. Could it get a lot worse? Most definitely it could. (Watch how the incipient water crisis develops.)

A seemingly unrelated article I came across was in Salon.com, entitled "Criminals of the world, unite and take over" written by Laura Miller. The article deals with the fast growing transnational crime phenomenon, which may account for close to "one-fifth of the planet's gross domestic product."

Of particular interest in this piece is how the West's agricultural policies might have helped criminal enterprises grow in the decaying Soviet Empire beginning in the early 1990s, and how some Western financial institutions today may be even more obtuse than first thought.

These criminal organizations are today quite capable in many cases of filling the vacuum when legitimate and traditional governments fail. It's happening right now all over the world, including in North America.

But to leave everyone on a positive and uplifting note about food and how we all might make an important difference, take a look at an article from one of my favorite writers, Michael Pollan. Go to Why Bother